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February data are adjusted to account for the leap year Even within fossil generation, reductions in coal power generation have been greater than those in power generation using natural gas Extended Data Fig. This is counterintuitive, as traditionally natural gas power plants are thought to be less favourably placed on the merit order, due to higher fuel costs. However, the overall economic downturn has reduced demand for oil and natural gas in all sectors, so that spot-market prices for gas have declined, favouring gas-powered generation.

Coal prices have also declined, but with a smaller impact on the variable costs of coal-based power generation, due to higher shares of extraction- and transportation-related costs as well as higher maintenance costs.

The effect of switching from coal to gas has additionally been supported in Europe by relatively stable emissions prices in the EU Emissions Trading System EU-ETS , which has contributed further to unfavourable economics for coal-based power generation 7.

The global reduction results from strong reductions of fossil generation in most countries, partly offset by increases in China Extended Data Fig. If the annual net addition of low-carbon generation from wind, solar, nuclear and hydro surpasses the increase in power demand, total fossil generation decreases. During most of the last decade, annual demand growth has slightly surpassed the additional generation of low-carbon power, except for and Fig.

Based on the strong coupling between economic growth and power demand Supplementary Fig. On the other hand, the build-up of low-carbon power capacity is expected to continue in the near and longer-term future, with only a slight deceleration in , mostly caused by a reduction of nuclear generation in Europe 9.

This leads to a continuing decrease of emissions intensity per kWh of power generation, with a steep drop in Extended Data Fig. To the extent that the growth in low-carbon power generation exceeds future demand increases, power supply emissions may have reached their all-time peak in central estimate in Fig.

Power sector emissions in will likely increase compared with but remain below values, given continuing additions of low-carbon generation Fig. If the rate of low-carbon additions increases through and beyond, and assuming that demand growth rates in � return to average levels over past years which are similar to near-term yearly increases expected by the International Energy Agency IEA 10 , a cross-over point would be reached.

Passing this point would mean a structural transition from growing to decreasing fossil power generation. CO 2 emissions would thus decline from onwards based on underlying drivers, accelerated by the COVID pandemic.

If demand increases faster, or low-carbon growth slows considerably, fossil fuel generation and emissions could continue to increase through , but would reach the peak level only with very high demand increases or very low additions of low-carbon generation. Figure 1c contrasts the central estimate, assuming the demand and low-carbon additions as in Fig. These vary the carbon intensity of fossil generation, and the overall amount of fossil generation which given the merit-order structure is determined by both absolute power demand and low-carbon generation.

Various market factors affect the projections Fig. A disruption in supply chains, reduced availability of capital investments and reduced international technology cooperation would hurt low-carbon power addition and deployment of energy efficiency technologies, especially in emerging economies Existing plans to expand the fleet of coal-based power plants 12 face very immediate risks of resulting in stranded assets, both due to fast technological change and climate change considerations 13 , The current situation illustrates the weakening market position of coal-power generation, suffering simultaneously from reductions in power prices and from an unfavourable position on the merit order compared with low-carbon alternatives, resulting in strongly reduced market share.

This demonstration of the low resilience of coal will make it more difficult for future projects to access financing, in turn increasing the attractiveness of low-carbon projects. Lastly, any delay of investment decisions for power generation expansion makes renewable energy projects more attractive, as the costs of wind, solar and storage 15 continue to decrease.

It is clear that the post-crisis developments will be strongly impacted by near-term policy choices. There is a distinct risk that brown recovery packages will give support to construction of additional fossil-fuelled power plants.

These are, however, very risky investments, as the rate of utilization of coal-fuelled power plants has been decreasing in nearly all markets over recent years and plummeted amid the pandemic in 9 see above. Only with a very strong rebound of demand and indiscriminate support also for inefficient industries would fossil generation be able to expand back to levels, but it would be the first to lose market share in repeated suppression of demand, due to either crises or increased efficiency.

Inversely, the current situation offers a unique opportunity for policy-makers to make the decreasing trend in power sector emissions irreversible, while total electricity generation continues to grow. The most effective means for accelerating the transformation of the power system is to strengthen carbon pricing around the world and to eliminate subsidies for fossil fuels.

The current situation of very low fossil fuel prices offers a good opportunity for these measures, especially if revenue recycling is used to support other societal goals An important characteristic of carbon pricing, making it indispensable in the medium term, is that it counteracts the consumer price reductions of fossil fuels resulting from their reduced usage A complementary way to support power sector decarbonization can make use of the merit-order mechanism described above.

Supporting investments in low-carbon power generation, especially fast-growing granular power technologies such as wind and solar 19 , and increasing energy efficiency reduces the residual demand for fossil power generation. Both of these measures have the additional benefits of high readiness, fast scalability, high employment intensity and local value added.

Furthermore, policies supporting behavioural, social and structural changes reduce energy demand for attaining service levels and thus reduce future electricity demand growth 20 , resulting in decreased import bills for energy importers. International cooperation is key to help fast-growing economies outside the OECD to quickly scale up these two options, thus also reaching peak emissions as soon as possible Extended Data Fig.

S1 and avoid additional carbon lock-in. Long-term investment funds supported for example by the EU could provide credit below the high market interest rates in developing countries, thereby reducing the high capital costs of low-carbon power generation technologies and investments in energy efficiency.

These support schemes should incentivize developing countries to introduce carbon pricing schemes in order to avoid risky rebound effects at all scales, by which depressed world market prices for fossil fuels could lead to increased use of these fuels in unregulated regions 21 and sectors If designed properly, these schemes can enhance international cooperation significantly 23 and contribute to fostering sustainable development post COVID globally.

The power sector has a crucial role to play in the decarbonization of the entire energy system and was already in the midst of a dynamic transformation process before COVID The economic repercussions of the pandemic have led to a very pronounced reduction of fossil-fuel-based power generation, illustrating the risks of stranded assets in coal power generation to financial actors.

While the uncertainties on near-term projections are considerable, it is possible that power sector CO 2 emissions will not return to their level of ref. Various policy instruments could be effective in supporting an accelerated emissions decline over the next few years.

The analysis builds upon yearly power generation data until from BP 6. Power sector data from Ember for the first half of for a subset of countries, representing roughly three-quarters of global power generation, is shown in Fig.

Data on CO 2 emissions for � are from the IEA 10 , and data are deduced from the generation data in the BP dataset, assuming constant emissions factors by fuel. The projections of total demand and total power generation in and are based on GDP projections by the IMF 8 , assuming an elasticity of electricity demand to GDP of 0. For the projection of emissions in �, we distinguish between uncertainty about volumes of fossil generation being determined by growth of total demand and low-carbon generation and uncertainty about the composition and thus emissions intensity of fossil generation being a question of relative prices.

The central three trajectories red and inner grey lines are all based on the central estimate on development of fossil generation as displayed in Fig. The higher grey line assumes that the emissions intensity of fossil generation stays constant at levels, as used in previous studies 26 , while the lower grey line assumes that all generation reductions are taken up by coal generation, which seems to be more in line with data from the USA, India and Europe Extended Data Fig.

The central red line takes an intermediate assumption, namely that the emissions intensity of displaced fossil generation is the mean between the intensity of fossil generation and coal power generation. This reflects the uncertainties about growth of both demand and low-carbon generation, which is on the order of a few hundred TWh each and increases over time.

The very high estimate assumes constant emissions intensity of fossil generation, while the very low one assumes all reductions to be from coal generation. Average emissions intensities of generation for both gas and coal are assumed to remain at levels, while in reality they might continue to improve in over the next years, due to higher variable generation costs of older and less efficient plants.

We then adjusted the specifications on sectoral reduction per confinement level Supplementary Tables 1 and 2 to match the observed emissions reductions in the power sectors of the EU, India and the USA Supplementary Figs. Further details on the projections in Fig. Source data are provided with this paper. Change 10 , � Creutzig, F. The underestimated potential of solar energy to mitigate climate change. Energy 2 , Article Google Scholar. Open data.

H Statistical Review of World Energy Matthes, F. Assessment of the planned compensation payments. World Energy Outlook Cherp, A. COVID weakens both sides in the battle between coal and renewables. Edenhofer, O. Mercure, J. Macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil fuel assets. Change 8 , � Malik, A. Reducing stranded assets through early action in the Indian power sector.

Schmidt, O. The future cost of electrical energy storage based on experience rates. Franks, M. Mobilizing domestic resources for the Agenda via carbon pricing. Wilson, I. Rapid fuel switching from coal to natural gas through effective carbon pricing. Energy 3 , � Bauer, N. Received 07 Aug Accepted 24 Nov Published 19 Dec Abstract Based on the chemical reaction mechanism of fuel combustion, NO in the diesel emissions is mainly generated from N 2 inside the burning environment of engine cylinder.

Table 1. Figure 1. Figure 2. The adaptation verification for the 3D simulation models of the ACa engine. Figure 3. Curve of pressure under different O 2 volume fraction. Figure 4. Curve of heat release rate under different O 2 volume fraction. Figure 5. Curve of temperature under different O 2 volume fraction.

Figure 6. Curve of total heat release under different O 2 volume fraction. Figure 7. Figure 8. Cylinder pressure of diesel engine tests in the environment of O 2 and CO 2. Figure 9. Figure Heat release in the environment of different high O 2 volume fraction. Cylinder pressure in the environment of different high O 2 volume fraction.

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